If Everyone In The World Stayed At Home For Two Weeks, Would We Avoid A Coronavirus Pandemic?

This question was originally posted on Quora.com and was answered by Peter Flom, Statistical consultant at Peter Flom Consulting



It’s too late now. But, while this might work in theory, it can’t work in practice. Not for this virus or any other. Why not?

1. Some people can’t stay home. Do you really want to have no police, no sanitation, no mail, no access to cash, no access to food, no pharmacies, no doctors or nurses for 2 weeks? It would kill more people than the virus.
2. Some people have no homes.
3. Some are away from home. They’d have to get home (but they couldn’t because all the transport people would be home).
4. You’d have to impose this at a very early stage. EDIT with some more issues:
5. If anything caught fire, it would burn. So would the neighbors. Because the fire department would be home.
6. If anything broke and the resident couldn’t fix it, it would stay broken. So, there would be massive floods, power outages and so on.

HOWEVER, what is much more practical is that we can limit the extent of the pandemic (and spread it out over time) if we follow the guidelines that most places have promulgated:

• Avoid crowds
• Work from home if you can
• Wash your hands regularly with soap and water for 20 seconds or more
• Use hand sanitizer
• If you feel sick, stay home

In addition, governments can do sensible things (and many are) like banning or closing places where lots of people gather.

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