The only certainty in the healthcare business over the next decade will be more and more rapid change. Doctors on the front line of care will not be exempt from healthcare business evolution. In fact, physicians will play an increasingly vital role in this ever-dynamic industry. Here are some of the business changes doctors are likely to experience over the next 10 years. Value-based care You might be longing for the simpler times of fee-for-service medicine, but value-based care is here to stay, and it’s likely to become more entrenched in the decade to come. According to a recent Healthcare Financial Management report, physicians can expect to experience the value-based care transition in three arenas: consumer choice, consolidation, and innovation. On the consumer choice front, physicians and their employers will have to prove their value to consumers by supplying meaningful data about their patient outcomes. Consolidation, in the forms of mergers and acquisitions among organizations that employ doctors, is likely to continue so that these organizations can better negotiate with payers. Private practice, it seems, is likely to become even less prominent. Finally, HFM says that the data-driven nature of healthcare, as well as the increasingly consumer-focused nature of healthcare, will mean more technology in medical practice. Cyber security Value-based care requires a ton of data. With data collection at scale comes the risk of a security breach. According to a recent Deloitte report, physicians likely can expect increased pressure from their employers to keep their PHI safe. Each internet-connected device in clinical practice is a potential access point for cyber criminals. Organizations that employ doctors will be under increased regulatory pressure to keep those devices and their data safe, Deloitte says. It’s safe to assume that doctors can expect increased cyber security training in the decade to come so that they are better prepared to manage risk at the front line of care. Wearables Analysts are predicting a 27% increase in consumer spending on wearable health devices, such as Apple Watches, Fitbits, Whoop straps and Oura rings. Not much of a surprise there as consumers continue to see the benefits of personal health data. What sets the next decade apart is the intersection of wearable data and healthcare providers. Up until now, the two have operated in a siloed, potentially troubled system. But if the success of the Freestyle Libre is any indicator, physicians can expect the data barrier between them and consumers to come down. Part of what makes the Freestyle Libre so interesting, and perhaps effective, is the way in which it facilitates the exchange of blood glucose data between consumers and providers. Doctors likely can expect similar integration from wearable devices in the decade to come. Artificial Intelligence By and large, the import of AI in healthcare has been over-hyped. But that is likely to change in the decade to come, and it’s likely to be the result of the value-based care push. In healthcare, using AI to improve medical imaging reads, or potentially speed the development of new pharmaceuticals have stolen headlines. But the real potential benefit of AI could be in healthcare cost reduction, as mandated by the move to value-based healthcare. As summarized succinctly by this recent Healthcare Finance News article, the real growth potential for AI in healthcare is its applications for population-based health. By feeding more data into an AI system, physicians could have broad clinical insights at the fingertips that they wouldn’t otherwise have. Trends in population health become more apparent, and doctors can respond in turn. Doctor shortage The U.S. population is getting older and sicker, and there are fewer doctors to care for it. That’s according to the Association of American Medical Colleges. By 2032, the AAMC says there will be a shortfall of about 120,000 doctors. This is right in line with past projections. This has several likely implications for practicing physicians and doctors-to-be, as well as the healthcare industry itself. Fewer doctors means an increased workload for physicians. This could in turn lead to increased burnout rates, delays in retirement, and the increase in the number of NPs and PAs. Complicating the physician shortage is — not surprisingly — the exorbitant cost of obtaining a medical education. Bright students who would make great doctors are choosing other, sometimes more lucrative, professions that require less education. As a result, it’s likely that medical schools may follow in NYU’s footsteps and opt to offer free tuition. TL;DR The business trends that are likely to affect doctors over the next decade are: The continued evolution of value-based healthcare. Cyber security threats that come with the increase in collected patient data. Wearables making their way into clinical practice. AI offering new population-based clinical insights. Fewer doctors increasing the demand on an aging physician workforce. Source
