Berlin, Warsaw And Other Urban Cities Could Be Struck Down By An Evolved Outbreak Of Measles

Berlin, Warsaw and other urban cities could be struck down by an evolved outbreak of measles 'because of immigration mixed with low vaccination rates'



berlin and Warsaw could be rocked by an aggressive outbreak of measles in the coming years, scientists fear.
Researchers claim the capital cities of Germany and Poland share similarities to the Dutch Bible Belt (DBB) in the Netherlands.

There have been large measles outbreaks almost every 12 years in the area, home to thousands of orthodox-protestants.
There are low vaccination rates in the DBB and high rates of measles in adults, which is when the infection is more dangerous.
Experts in Poland have warned low vaccination rates can also be found in Berlin and Warsaw, as well as 'other urban places'.

Both cities, home to millions, also have high immigration levels – a risk factor because vaccination rates can be much lower among some migrant communities.

The Jagiellonian University Medical College team, led by Dr Bartosz Lisowski, warned the virus is constantly evolving to pose more of a threat.

Writing in a journal, they warned how large-scale vaccination drives are needed to reduce the risk of humanity returning to 'the Dark Ages'.
They said: 'Many urban areas are like the DBB in that they have a total population of a few million and about 200 schools over which susceptible children are distributed.

'As vaccination rates in the developed world are decreasing, the situation in the DBB is duplicated in other places.

'In the DBB with every subsequent measles outbreak since 1988 there have been more adult patients and concurrently more hospitalizations.
'This is a worrisome trend and it may be what is to come on a wider scale if vaccination rates keep dropping and the developed world takes a small step back towards the Dark Ages.'

The researchers added, at the same time, viruses 'will most likely evolve to make these outbreaks larger and longer lasting'.

In Warsaw, where five per cent of the Polish population live, there is a population of around 2 million and 351 small schools.

'The anti-vaccination movement is rapidly gaining ground in Poland,' the researchers wrote in the scientific journal Bio-systems.

'Vaccination coverage is falling at increasing speed and has recently dropped below the critical 95 per cent.'

Dr Lisowski and colleagues estimate there are around 8,000 unvaccinated children of school age living in the Polish city, famous for its stunning architecture.

A large number of Warsaw's foreign residents come from Ukraine, the researchers added, where vaccination rates have dropped to 50 per cent.

As an estimate, there are 10,000 additional susceptible children coming from Ukraine on top of the already 8,000 not vaccinated in Warsaw.

'The total number of susceptibles thus comes to about 18,000,' Dr Lisowski and colleagues added in the report.
'This number is already close to the about 25,000 susceptibles that appeared to be sufficient to trigger an outbreak in the DBB.
'There is an obvious course of action for Warsaw and for other Polish cities if they want to ward off outbreaks of the measles.'

The experts added that 'it is imperative that they organize a large scale effort' to encourage people to get vaccinated.

Berlin, with a population of 3.5million, was struck by a measles outbreak in 2015, with 1,243 reported cases.
The researchers again suggested the 'fuel' came from children of parents who oppose vaccination.

While un-vaccinated immigrants and refugees from areas such as Syria and the former Yugoslavia may also have been to blame, the experts said.

The DBB, which stretches from which stretches 124miles (200km) in length from Middelburg in the south-west to Zwolle in the east, was struck by measles in 1988, 1999 and 2013.

Schooling played a large part in the spread each time, as almost every child under the age of ten would get infected.
Of the children who didn't get infected, they risk being caught out during the next outbreak, when they are an adult and are less able to fight the disease.

In each outbreak, the researchers calculated there were roughly 25,000 susceptible people aged between five and 22.

This is deemed as 'more than the critical mass that is necessary to initiate an outbreak' of measles.

Measles, a highly infectious viral illness, first presents as a fever, dry cough, runny nose, and sore throat.
It infects the respiratory tract before spreading throughout the body.
Serious complications, including blindness, encephalitis, severe diarrhoea and pneumonia. In extreme cases, measles can kill.

'Vaccine hesitancy', has been listed by the World Health Organization as one of the top threats to global health in 2019.

Under-vaccination has led to outbreaks of diseases not seen in years, including measles, whooping cough and mumps.
According to the World Health Organization, measles has seen a 30 percent increase in cases around the world.

Between September 2017 and August 2018, WHO reported more than 41,000 cases with 40 deaths in EU member states.

And, according to US officials, 349 cases of measles were reported in 26 states – the second greatest toll since it was considered eradicated in the US in 2000.

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